Hong Kong’s Democratic Diaspora Is Embracing British Elections

Originally published at Foreign Policy on Jul. 1, 2024.

Days before casting his ballot in Britain’s general election, Ivan—a Hong Konger in his 40s who recently resettled in the United Kingdom—reflected on the last time he voted back home. Four years ago, he joined more than half a million Hongkongers voting in an unofficial primary held by pro-democratic parties ahead of the city’s legislative council elections.

But the backlash was swift. Beijing arrested dozens who participated and charged them with “conspiracy to commit subversion” under a new national security law that was imposed on the city in 2020. Since then, China’s ruling Communist Party has conducted a sweeping crackdown on dissent that has eroded freedoms, including a major overhaul of the electoral system ensuring that only “patriots” can run for office. Ivan declined to give his last name due to safety concerns, since he still hopes to travel back and forth if possible.

“That was the trigger point. Before, I thought I’d stay in Hong Kong forever,” Ivan, who immigrated under the U.K.’s British National Overseas (BNO) visa scheme, told Foreign Policy. Since 2021, more than 180,000 Hong Kongers have moved to Britain under the program, set up in response to the recent repression. Now, Ivan feels a renewed sense of responsibility to exercise his political rights in Britain. “Here, I have to work harder and do my part.”

It’s a sentiment that seems to be shared by many Hong Kongers—perhaps with meaningful consequences. Richard Wong, a 25-year-old living in Reading, is another Hong Konger who has thrown himself into British politics. Wong joined the Labour Party three months after he arrived two years ago, and he has been canvassing as a volunteer in the run-up to the general election.

“I care a lot about Hong Kong. Some of my friends are still serving time in prison,” Wong said. “It’s bizarre that I’m living on the other side of the Earth and can vote for people I support.”

On July 4, Ivan and Richard will be among the estimated 140,000 Hong Kong migrants voting for the first time in the U.K.—a new voter base that could swing crucial seats. According to research by London-based advocacy group Hong Kong Watch, these voters could decide at least 10 seats currently held by the Conservative Party, whose base has rapidly eroded and collapsed after five turbulent years of government.

News headlines such as “Why the Tories need the new Hong Kong voter base,” and “Hongkongers make a splash in UK politics” have fueled speculation over the bloc’s influence ahead of elections. Labour, the overwhelming favorite to win the elections; the Tories; and the much smaller Liberal Democrats have all voiced support for Hong Kongers and sought to portray themselves as hawkish on Beijing. The only exception is the far-right Reform party.

The Tories, credited for introducing the BNO visa program, pledged to declare China a security risk on par with Russia and Iran if they win; Labour’s manifesto states that the party would “stand with and support members of the Hong Kong community.” Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats (the only party to pledge right of abode to BNO passport holders from Hong Kong during the last general election, which was held in 2019) are promising to close gaps in the BNO visa scheme and extend integration funding for Hong Kongers.

The rhetoric isn’t just aimed at Hong Kongers. Concerns over Chinese interference in the U.K. continue to escalate, following espionage accusations from both states and the arrests of suspected spies for Hong Kong’s intelligence services. Since arriving, pro-democracy Hong Kongers have also accused Beijing of harassing them on British soil, and in 2022, a protester was dragged into the Chinese consulate in Manchester and beaten up.

Yet the support for new arrivals from Hong Kong is somewhat at odds with the country’s increasingly hostile stance on immigration, an issue that remains a key battleground between the parties. In June, a YouGov survey found that 43 percent of people believed immigration has a negative impact on British society, while 35 percent thought it had a positive impact.

Earlier this year, the Conservatives passed the Rwanda deportation bill, which allows the government to send asylum-seekers to the East African nation for processing and resettlement—a move condemned by human rights advocates and immigration experts. While Labour has committed to scrapping the scheme, it’s hardly been supportive of migrants, with leader Keir Starmer making statements such as: “Read my lips—I will bring immigration numbers down.”

Welcoming Hong Kongers is one of the few issues with bipartisan support, and polling shows that the British public are generally in favor of the BNO scheme. Yet critics warn that this support is partly based precariously on toxic narratives—framing Hong Kongers as model minorities (for example, stereotyping them as skilled workers that can boost Britain’s crippled economy)—and problematic imperial nostalgia, rather than genuine acceptance.

“It’s a double-edged sword,” Eric Lai, a research fellow at the Georgetown Center for Asian Law, told Foreign Policy. “The government is happy to develop a ‘good immigrant’ narrative with Hong Kongers to try to distinguish between a lawful immigrant compared to an ‘illegal’ migrant. This is not helpful in the long run.”

Currently, there are also Hong Kong asylum-seekers who are experiencing the impact of Britain’s harsh migration policies. Before it was expanded in 2022, the BNO scheme only included those born before the handover in 1997.) A Hong Kong activist recently criticized a series of asylum rejections in the community and accused immigration caseworkers of being “predisposed to discredit” Hong Kongers’ claims—even in cases of people who were arrested in the pro-democracy protests that followed the passage of the national security law.

Kiwi Ting, a lecturer of comparative politics at the University of Reading, echoed Lai’s perspective. Although Hong Kongers may think they’re “immune” to anti-immigration developments as “good” migrants, he said that it’s “not impossible” that the government may see restricting Hong Kong arrivals as quick fix for reducing migration in the future.

Another irony is that many Hong Kongers fled to the U.K. because they care deeply about protest rights, yet the country’s controls on demonstrators have become more stringent than ever before. While in government, the Tories pushed through a slew of anti-protest measures aimed at restricting environmental protesters from groups such as Just Stop Oil—and have given police what human rights advocate Akiko Hart called “almost unlimited” powers to clamp down on rallies.

“Some of the things the Tories are doing, like expanding the power of the government and cracking down on unruly protest—there are parallels with what the Hong Kong government has been doing,” Ting said. Labour has yet to say whether it will repeal the policies, which have since been used to crackdown on anti-monarchy and pro-Palestinian protesters.

In the run-up to the election, some are also asking: Do Hong Kongers really do have the potential to shape U.K. politics?

Despite the rhetoric, Hong Kong is ultimately a very secondary issue in the election, according to Ka Ming Chan, a lecturer in comparative politics at Newcastle University. Since domestic issues tend to supersede foreign-policy matters in elections, any posturing on the topic of China is likely “more lip service than actual policy,” he said.

It’s also difficult to say how many Hong Kongers will turn up at the polls or how they might vote. A study with about 1,300 responses that was conducted in 2022 by the University of Liverpool suggested that Hong Kongers have a preference for the Tories, followed by the Liberal Democrats and Labour. Yet a more recent survey by the Vote 4 HK Campaign found that the majority of about 1,200 Hong Kongers have no clear preference towards a specific party, but more than 80 percent had registered to vote.

“Hong Kongers were motivated (to immigrate) for political reasons, so we think the turnout will be high,” said Ian Ng, a 21-year-old politics student and one of the campaign’s organizers. While his status as a dependent under the BNO visa scheme prevents him from voting, Ng has channeled his efforts into empowering others to do so through the campaign.

Launched last year, the nonpartisan initiative aims to “maximise the influence of Hongkongers in shaping UK politics” and advocate for the community’s concerns. Organizers have encouraged candidates to sign pledges supporting the “settlement and integration” of Hong Kongers as well as their exercising of civic rights “free from repression.”

Beyond foreign policy, voters from Hong Kong are also concerned about how parties will tackle domestic woes such as the National Health Service crisis, taxation, and the rising cost of living.

Stella, a BNO migrant in her 40s, told Foreign Policy that she’ll be placing more emphasis on domestic issues such as crime: “I put more focus on existing MPs who I observe to be really devoting time and resources to bringing local issues to parliament.”

Despite having resettled in Britain over two years ago, Stella—a former banker—is still searching for a job. A study released in November revealed that only half of new migrants from Hong Kong are working, and 47 percent report of them are doing so at a level below their skills and qualifications.

Yet Stella remains active and optimistic. Since moving with her family to Sutton, a leafy borough in Southern London that is now home to an estimated 4,000 Hong Kongers who have arrived since 2020, she has regularly volunteered for various community organizations, including her local food bank and church, with a group of politically engaged Hong Kongers.

“If you ask me, the overall passion and participation of Hong Kongers is far higher than some of the other locals,” said Stella, who helped encourage other BNO migrants to take part in local elections in May. “We lost the democratic rights we used to have. Now, we cherish what we have here.”